Japanese Economic Performance after the Pandemic: A Sectoral Analysis

The COVID-19 crisis battered the Japanese economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the pandemic has left scars. To this end, it employs out-of-sample forecasting models and detailed stock market data for 30 sectors and disaggregated current account data for the 3 years after the first case occurred. The findings indicate that stock prices in sectors such as tourism, education, and cosmetics remain far below forecasted values after three years. Office equipment and semiconductor stock prices initially fell more than predicted but have since recovered. Other sectors such as bicycle parts and home appliances gained at first but are now performing as expected. Sectors such as home delivery and electronic entertainment continue to outperform. The results also indicate that income flows from Japanese investments abroad are much larger than forecasted, keeping the Japanese current account in surplus even as imports of oil and commodities have created persistent trade deficits. Since the travails of hard-hit sectors such as tourism reflect their exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than bad choices made by firms, policymakers should consider employing cost-effective ways to stimulate economic activity in these sectors. © 2023 by the author.

Effects of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on implied stock market volatility: International evidence using a google trend measure.

This paper investigates the relationship between investors' attention, as measured by Google search queries, and equity implied volatility during the COVID-19 outbreak. Recent studies show that search investors' behavior data is an extremely abundant repository of predictive data, and investor-limited attention increases when the uncertainty level is high. Our study using data from thirteen countries across the globe during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (January-April 2020) examines whether the search "topic and terms" for the pandemic affect market participants' expectations about future realized volatility. With the panic and uncertainty about COVID-19, our empirical findings show that increased internet searches during the pandemic caused the information to flow into the financial markets at a faster rate and thus resulting in higher implied volatility directly and via the stock return-risk relation. More specifically for the latter, the leverage effect in the VIX becomes stronger as Google search queries intensify. Both the direct and indirect effects on implied volatility, highlight a risk-aversion channel that operates during the pandemic. We also find that these effects are stronger in Europe than in the rest of the world. Moreover, in a panel vector autoregression framework, we show that a positive shock on stock returns may soothe COVID-related Google searches in Europe. Our findings suggest that Google-based attention to COVID-19 leads to elevated risk aversion in stock markets.

Stock return anomalies identification during the Covid-19 with the application of a grouped multiple comparison procedure.

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese stock market in 2020. Using daily data of three industries, this study addresses the identification of abnormal stock returns as a multiple hypothesis testing problem and proposes to apply a grouped comparison procedure for better detection. By comparing the numbers of daily signals and numbers of stocks with abnormal positive and negative returns, the empirical result shows that the three industries perform differently under the pandemic. Compared to the non-grouped testing procedure, the signals found by the grouped procedure are more prominent, which is advantageous for some situations when there tends to be abnormal performance clustering at the occurrence of major event. This paper on stock return anomalies gives a new perspective on the impact of major events to the stock market, like the global outbreak disease.

An Assessment of Unconventional Monetary Policy During COVID-19 Pandemic in India

We employ event study methodology to analyze the impact of unprecedented unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures employed by the Reserve Bank of India to fortify monetary transmission mechanism and to restore financial stability. We find that the UMP announcements result in a decline in bond yields and yield spread as well as increase in market capitalization and sectoral portfolio of stock returns. Evaluating the relative efficacy of UMP measures, we find that targeted long-term repo operation announcements are more effective in easing bond yields than mere long-term repo operations. Our findings provide beneficial inference for day-traders and investors as asset prices increase significantly and durable goods producing stock returns found to be higher than those of non-durable goods. The lessons that can be drawn for the emerging market economy central banks, who do not have enough space to conduct conventional monetary policy and even when they do not face zero lower bound interest rate, they still can employ UMP tools to directly influence banks cost of funds, and long-term bond yields and interest rates, and in turn, portfolio of stock returns and investments to stimulate aggregate demand. JEL Classification: C13, C54, E52, E65

Oil in the age of coronavirus: Hysteria or appropriate fall?

We look at the oil price fall in the beginning of 2020 and the effects of coronavirus and the attention towards it on these prices. Such a fall was observed at multiple markets simultaneously with the spread of coronavirus and the panic around it, and oil market wasn't an exception. Using OLS time series models, we investigate - what was the main reason behind such a fall - the coronavirus pandemic itself or rather the attention towards it. We prove the absence of straight effects of the COVID-19 itself on oil prices. At the same time we find significant negative impact of the attention towards COVID-19 on the Internet search on the oil prices. We investigate the role of the OPEC in mitigating the negative impact of coronavirus and the attention towards it. We found that after the OPEC summit both the number of Covid cases and the attention towards the disease lost its influence on oil prices. Our paper is relevant for the behavioral finance researchers, as well as for those who look at the influence of informational shocks on different markets and particularly, on the oil market and at the effect of the COVID-19 on the economy.

The impact of government policy responses on airline stock return during the COVID-19 crisis

This study investigates the impact of government policies on the weekly stock returns of 73 global airline companies in 36 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using panel data estimation techniques with country and week fixed effects, we find that the overall government policies and containment and health policies increase airline stock returns. Economic support policies do not significantly impact the returns. Containment and health policies mitigate the negative effect of the pandemic on airline stock returns, whereas economic support policies strengthen the adverse effect. The government interventions' impact on airline stock returns is heterogeneous based on the headquarters but not on the airline's ownership structures and business operations. Our empirical findings provide salient insights for protecting airline companies by reflecting on which government policy responses are effective and how governments should invest and prioritize policies. The results also present practical implications for airline managers, investors, and policymakers concerned with the current pandemic and future crises.

The Nonlinearity of Working Capital and Cross-Sectional Stock Returns: Does Financial Constraints Matter?

This study is the first to examine the impacts of working capital (WC) and financial constraints on cross-sectional stock returns in Taiwan. The findings indicate a non-linear relationship between WC and stock returns. Moreover, the nonlinearity between WC and cross-sectional stock returns is robust after controlling for financial constraints, risk, and growth factors, before the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast, there is no evidence of nonlinearity between WC and stock returns throughout the Covid-19 outbreak. In addition, the study shows that any deviations from the minimum WC level enhance the stock returns cross-sectionally. It is found that a positive Deviation effect exists in the Taiwan stock exchange before the Covid-19 pandemic by employing portfolio sorting methodologies. The return difference of the long buying highest Deviation and short selling lowest Deviation portfolios earn from 0.6% to 0.9% per month after controlling for financial constraints, risks, and growth factors. Interestingly, it is determined that the deviation effect becomes negative for small stocks during the Covid-19 pandemic, implying that investors prefer small stocks to maintain minimum working capital. The results support the trade-off theory and liquidity preference theory. Finally, the study provides insights into working capital management for managers, and investment strategies for investors during the pandemic.

Did outside directors' firm-specific accumulated knowledge benefit the firm's stock performance during COVID-19?

We examine whether outside directors' firm-specific accumulated knowledge in the forms of human and internal social capital benefitted the firm during COVID-19. Using a sample of 754 US firms during the COVID-19 collapse period, we find an inverted U-shaped relation between outside directors' average board tenure and cumulative excess stock returns. Our result suggests that firms experienced optimal cumulative excess stock returns during COVID-19 when outside directors' average board tenure is 10 years. We also find that the curvilinear relation is profound for outside directors with more internal social capital, suggesting that outside directors' internal social capital plays a prominent role in enhancing board effectiveness during a crisis. Furthermore, we use several robustness checks to confirm the results. JEL Classification: D83, G30, G34, M41

Corporate ESG and resilience of stock prices in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in China

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on both the financial market and the real economy, leading to widespread concern about the relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) responsibilities and shareholders' wealth. This paper examines the relationship between ESG responsibility and stock returns in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and investigates the impact of ESG responsibility on stock price resilience. The results indicate that corporate ESG scores have positive impacts on stock returns during and after the COVID-19 crisis, with the positive impacts of ESG being more significant in the post-crisis period. Among the different ESG dimensions, environmental responsibility (ESG_E) has a more significant impact on stock returns, while social responsibility (ESG_S) and governance responsibility (ESG_G) have mixed impacts during the crisis. Furthermore, during and after the outbreak of COVID-19, the positive impacts of ESG are more pronounced among firms located in low-trust regions and firms with lower analyst coverage. Additionally, the study finds that corporate ESG responsibility help restore the resilience of stock prices during the crisis, with better ESG performance leading to stronger stock price resilience. Overall, the results strongly support the conclusion that ESG has acted as an "equity vaccine” during the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Relationship between COVID-19 and the Performance of Pharmaceutical Industry

The aim of the study was to determine how covid-19 affects the pharmaceutical stock market. The monthly data was used in this study span two years, from 2020 to 2022. For the study the independent variables were taken are daily new cases and daily deaths, market to book value and their effect on the market return of pharmaceutical industry. The results showed that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant impact on the sector's stock performance. Investors believe healthcare and pharmaceutical companies will benefit from this pandemic as they invest in research and development to prepare for the current epidemic and all subsequent pandemics. The results of this survey showed that investors will continue to invest in healthcare and pharmaceutical companies over time. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Pharmaceutical Negative Results is the property of ResearchTrentz and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

A New Approach to Improving Hedging Performance in the OLS Model

The sensitivity of VIX futures to market movements changes over time with changes in market risk. Accordingly, in the case of using the OLS (ordinary least squares) model to hedge S&P 500 exposure with VIX futures, hedge ratios are affected by changes in risk appetite, which in turn contributes to the overall hedging performance as well as the asymmetry of the performance distribution. The conventional OLS approach does not effectively reflect this phenomenon in the model. In this study, the authors explore a new approach to improving hedging performance in the OLS model. They introduce an interaction term between the VIX and VIX futures returns into the OLS model. They find that the hedge ratios derived by the new approach provide better hedging results compared to the univariate OLS model in terms of mean return and downside risk protection, and also improve the asymmetry of the performance distribution. They extend their research to compare it with the performance of the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The new approach also shows better results than the DCC-GARCH approach. They obtain the same results in case studies of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, and also in applying a trading strategy to each hedging methodology.

Are family owners and managers good stewards in global crises? Evidence from stock market reactions to Covid-19

The Covid-19 pandemic as a truly global crisis has shown the importance of firm resilience in times of crisis. Yet, so far, we lack an understanding of the role of firm ownership and management in building this resilience. Based on stewardship theory, we posit that family management and ownership help firms to navigate through a global crisis. To test our predictions, we analyze how Covid-related negative events affect the stock market reactions of 300 German listed firms and how family ownership and management moderate these effects. Our cross-sectional regression results show a positive effect of family management while no such effect was found for family ownership. We contribute to the research on family involvement and stewardship in crisis situations by showing that family ownership and management constitute distinct determinants of stewardship behavior and by bringing a context element into family business stewardship research that was missing so far in the literature. Practical implications exist for family firm's top management employment policies and capital market communication in crisis situations.

Using Textual Analysis to Diversify Portfolios

Semantic fingerprinting is a leading AI solution that combines recent developments from cognitive neuroscience and psycholinguistics to analyze text with human- level accuracy. As an efficient method of quantifying text, it has already found its application in finance where the semantic fingerprints of company descriptions have been shown to successfully predict stock return correlations of Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA) constituents. By extension, it has been suggested that diversified portfolios could be constructed to exploit the fundamental (dis)similarity between companies' core activities (measured by the semantic overlap of company descriptions). This paper follows the performance of two portfolios made of the same DJIA constituent companies: the "minimum semantic concentration" portfolio (constructed with text-based portfolio weights) and the traditional "minimum variance" portfolio, over a time span of 16 years including two high volatility events: the 2007 - 2009 financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. The results confirm that textual analysis using semantic fingerprinting is consistently successful in predicting stock return correlations and is valuable as a portfolio selection criterion. However, in times of high market volatility the fundamental information given by the companies' core activities, while still relevant, might carry less weight.

The impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on hospitality stock returns in China

Coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) has already devastated the world, and the economy becomes the most critical challenge for any country worldwide. The increasing uncertainty of the COVID‐19 outbreak has made stock markets in China more turbulent and less predictable. Under the current exceptional circumstances, the hospitality industry suffered the most due to the travel restrictions. This research thus assesses the dynamic relationship among the COVID‐19 outbreak, macroeconomic fluctuations and hospitality stock returns based on a structural VAR framework from 13 January to 11 May 2020, in China. Evidence reveals that macroeconomic fluctuations and hospitality stock returns are significantly affected by shocks from the COVID‐19 outbreak. An unanticipated positive change of the COVID‐19 explosion triggers an addition in exchange rates and causes a reduction in the stock market and hospitality industry returns. For the impacts of the exchange rate, findings reveal that a surprise increase in exchange rates (currency depreciation) exerts a significant negative influence on stock market returns. Additionally, a positive change of stock market returns is linked to a decline in exchange rates and a rise in hospitality industry returns. Therefore, knowledge of these relationships can enable policymakers to evaluate and implement effective policies to stabilize the stock markets and help investors to make appropriate investment strategies.

On the time-varying relationship between coskewness and returns of banks

For a sample of US commercial banks, we find that during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic of February–December 2020, bank returns were positively related to their coskewness with the market return, while the relationship was negative during stable periods. The literature on non-financial firms and global equity indices has shown that the relationship between coskewness and stock returns is time-variant. The findings of this study extend that evidence to banks. The interpretation is that in normal times, investors show a preference for "lotteryness,” and therefore they are willing to pay a premium for bank stocks with a high coskewness (i.e., low expected return). In contrast, during crises, stocks with a high coskewness are more likely to suffer deep losses, and investors are reluctant to demand these risky high returns. These findings deliver important insights into how to interpret bank capital costs throughout the business cycle, as we suggest that during crises the issuance of equity capital becomes more costly for banks because investors demand higher coskewness risk premiums. © 2023 The Authors. Review of Financial Economics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of University of New Orleans.

Do Markets Price CEOs Health Hazards? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

We find evidence that markets anticipate the potential loss of firm value in the event of the CEO falling sick and eventually dying of COVID-19 in a sample of almost 3000 listed firms from across 137 regions in 10 European countries. First, we use soccer games as "super-spreader"events. The instrumented number of infected cases per capita in the region where company headquarters are located predicts a significant drop in stock returns during March and April 2020 for firms managed by CEOs with a higher probability of dying from COVID-19. Second, we show that the stock price of these firms increases significantly the day on which positive news on the development of COVID-19 vaccines are released in the market. © 2022 World Scientific Publishing Company. Midwest Finance Association.

Sustainability, Resilience, and Returns During COVID-19: Empirical Evidence from US and Indian Stock Markets

The growing number of consulting reports published globally show mixed evidence of higher returns for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indices as compared to equity indices. The present study analyzes whether or not sustainability provided resilience, during turbulent times, to the US and India, who were worst hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study tests whether higher ESG scores led to higher stock returns during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings revealed little and negative associations of sustainability with stock returns for sample firms during the COVID-19 crisis. There is no empirical evidence indicating that sustainability guarantees resilience during crisis times. Investors have their own preference channels and taste for sustainability that are beyond their financial motives. JEL Codes: Q01, G120 © 2023 Institute of Financial Management and Research.

A Systematic Literature Review on ESG during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues have been investigated by scholars from several points of view. Although the epidemic of COVID-19 is recent, numerous scholars have analyzed its effects on ESG, making it difficult to systematize current knowledge. This generates the risk that the discussion will become stale. This study aims to provide a systematic literature review able to examine the combination of ESG and COVID-19 outbreak, to understand what the academics discovered. Eighty-five studies were systematically reviewed. We used a systematic literature review which is the tool that can ensure that all relevant data from the topic under investigation are considered. This approach is considered as the most comprehensive and rigorous one because it allows the creation of the advancement of knowledge of the specific topic. We identified five classes plus a residual one that accommodate the main topics analyzed in the literature (investment and stock returns, ESG in specific industries, ESG rating, gender studies, ESG reporting, and other). Our research highlights that most of the studies have been focused on the first three topics, sometimes reaching different or opposite findings, while only few studies have been dedicated on the other topics. Therefore, we state the need for more research into the ESG/COVID-19 combination in the fields of gender diversity and ESG reporting, and for more research able to understand the different findings of the other three identified topics. © 2023 by the authors.

COVID-19 Pandemic and firm-level dynamics in the USA, UK, Europe, and Japan.

This paper examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic during its first and second waves for the USA, UK, Europe, and Japan. We explore the firm-level dynamics and exhibit the impact of coronavirus events on large and small firms and firms' idiosyncratic risk. We find that the intensity of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic events is not uniform for firms. The Blank Swan events in March 2020 exhibit stronger impact the second wave till April 2021. The second wave analysis reveals the sign of recovery and receding effect of the pandemic. The idiosyncratic analysis shows the positive impact of the coronavirus and stringency measures on the idiosyncratic risk.

CSR and firm value: is CSR valuable during the COVID 19 crisis in the French market?

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the French stock market and investigates whether companies with a commitment to corporate social responsibility (CSR) were less affected. Examining a sample consisting of 464 French firms, we separate firms that have implemented CSR activities around the event period (considered as active CSR adopters) from CSR-adopters (firms that did not indulge in CSR activities around that period) and non-CSR adopters. The empirical results indicate that active CSR adopters were less affected as some positive returns have been observed around the event date, indicating that their stock prices were relatively resistant to the crisis. The multivariate analysis shows that the French market reacted significantly to CSR strategy and that active CSR adopters are the least affected.